MARKET UPDATES
How do I choose the right market metric for my decision?
By Steve Lockhart
The short answer
The first rule is to start with the decision, not the data. Are you pricing a home to sell?
Full answer
The first rule is to start with the decision, not the data. Are you pricing a home to sell? Then comparable sales, sale to list ratio, and days on market for your segment matter most. Are you deciding whether you can afford to move? Then the payment math, closing costs, and your equity are the numbers that count.
Balance questions, like whether to wait or move now, lean on months of inventory and its trend. Timing and market direction lean on the leading indicators. Value questions always come home to recent comparable sales, because a market average cannot price a specific home.
The trap is using the wrong metric for the question: quoting the median for what your home is worth, or the sale to list ratio for whether you can afford the payment. Every number answers its own question well and other questions poorly.
In practice I choose the metrics by building the decision first: what you want, on what timeline, with what constraints. Then I pull the two or three numbers that bear directly on it. That is how data becomes a plan instead of a blur.
A note from Steve: market conditions change every month, and numbers quoted anywhere can go stale quickly. The guidance on this page is meant to stay true across markets. For the latest Southern Nevada figures, check the Market Updates page or ask me directly, and I will read the current data through your situation.
Go a little deeper
Frequently asked
Questions people often follow up on
What metric tells me if it is a buyer's or seller's market?
Months of inventory for your segment is the standard, read with days on market and sale to list ratio as confirmation. Together those three describe the balance and the pace of your market.
What metric should I use to price my home?
Recent closed sales of comparable homes, adjusted for condition, size, and upgrades. Price per square foot can screen, and the median can frame context, but comparable sales are the evidence that matters.
The Lockhart Method
The Lockhart Method
Your Home | My Strategy | Proven Results
My strategy: I ask the decision question first and let it pick the metrics. Each situation gets the two or three numbers that actually govern it, in plain language, with the rest left where they belong: context.
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